Executive Summary
Toronto is significantly behind the pace needed to achieve Ontario’s 285,000-home target by 2031, with current housing starts below historical averages and the lowest per-capita among major Canadian metros. The ownership-oriented pipeline is particularly impaired by collapsed [[condo presales]] and tightened financing conditions, while net migration patterns are reducing demand for expensive new units. Although the [[City of Toronto]] has implemented strong zoning reforms (including multiplex permissions and mid-rise policies), these policy changes are not yet translating into starts at the scale required, making the target unlikely without major shifts in financing, market conditions, and delivery mechanisms.
Key Takeaways
- Toronto is not meeting its annual benchmarks on [[Ontario’s Housing Supply Progress Tracker]] and has been flagged as underperforming relative to its share of the provincial goal
- [[Housing starts]] in Toronto fell well below the 10-year average in 2025 and are the lowest per-capita among the seven largest Canadian metropolitan areas
- [[Condo presales]] have collapsed, creating a forward-looking supply problem since presales are essential for financing high-rise projects
- The [[City of Toronto]]’s “gentle density” initiatives (multiplexes, laneway suites, garden suites) could deliver up to 54,600 homes by 2031—only 19% of the 285,000-home target
- The remaining ~230,000 units would need to come from high-rise condos, rentals, mid-rise projects, and public/non-profit builds—all currently underperforming
- Net migration from Toronto to surrounding regions is reducing demand for expensive new units and further chilling presales
- The 285,000-home target is not on track and unlikely to be met under current market and financing conditions, even with strong zoning reforms
Progress Towards Ontario’s Housing Goal of 285,000 Homes
Overview
Based on current data, Toronto is well behind the pace needed for 285,000 homes by 2031. Recent trends—weak [[condo presales]], lower starts, and migration patterns—make the target possible in theory but unlikely without a major policy, financing, and delivery shift.
Key Indicators at a Glance
| Indicator | Recent Signal for Toronto | What It Implies for 285k Target |
|---|---|---|
| Progress vs. Provincial Target | Behind annual benchmarks on [[Ontario’s Housing Supply Progress Tracker]] | Off-pace relative to 2031 goal |
| [[Housing Starts]] | Below 10-year average; lowest per-capita among big CMAs | Pipeline is weakening, not strengthening |
| Condo/Ownership Pipeline | Condo presales and ownership-oriented construction have slumped | Future multi-unit supply at risk |
| Policy Capacity | City is actively up-zoning (sixplexes, mid-rise, infill) | Strong enabling framework, but not yet translating into starts at needed scale |
1. Provincial Tracker: How Far Behind Is Toronto?
Ontario’s official [[Housing Supply Progress Tracker]] reports annual progress toward each municipality’s 2031 target, including Toronto. It counts:
- [[Housing starts]]
- Additional residential units (ARUs)
- Long-term care beds
- Student beds and retirement suites (newly included)
For 2024, Ontario as a whole reached about 76% of its 125,000-home annual target, with 73,617 housing starts and other counted units.
Within that, Toronto is not in the “green” (met target) group and has been flagged in media and policy discussions as underperforming relative to its share of the provincial goal. The tracker’s own framing—rewarding municipalities that hit at least 80% of their annual target—implicitly shows Toronto is not consistently hitting that 80% threshold.
Takeaway: On the province’s own scoreboard, Toronto is already behind the curve for a linear path to 285,000 by 2031.
2. CMHC Supply Data: Toronto Is the Laggard Among Big Metros
CMHC’s Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report is blunt about Toronto:
- Nationally, [[housing starts]] rose 6% in 2025 to 259,000 units, with most markets above their 10-year average
- Toronto is the outlier: starts fell well below its 10-year average and were the lowest per-capita among the seven largest CMAs
- Rental and “missing middle” construction are doing some work, but:
- Condominium presales collapsed
- Unsold inventory increased
- Tighter financing and project cancellations are threatening the future pipeline of ownership-oriented supply
This lines up exactly with observable trends: [[condo sales]] have collapsed, and that’s not just a demand story—it’s a forward-looking supply problem, because presales are what make high-rise projects financeable.
Takeaway: The current pipeline is shrinking, not ramping up. That’s structurally at odds with a steep climb to 285,000 homes.
3. City of Toronto’s Own Reports: Big Zoning Moves, But Supply Is Still Theoretical
In June 2025, the [[City of Toronto]] released a suite of reports aimed at “unlocking more homes citywide” to help meet the 285,000-home provincial target. Key moves include:
- City-wide permissions for 5- and 6-unit multiplexes in all residential neighbourhoods
- Expanded laneway and garden suites, multiplexes, and housing on major streets
- City estimates: up to 54,600 homes by 2031 and 163,785 by 2051 from these “gentle density” initiatives alone
- Mid-rise along transit corridors (Avenues Policy Review)
- Apartment infill on ~5,000 existing tower sites
These are serious, structural reforms. But the [[City of Toronto]]’s own numbers are telling:
- Even if the “gentle density” initiatives fully deliver their upper-bound estimate of 54,600 homes by 2031, that’s only about 19% of the 285,000-home target
- The rest would have to come from:
- High-rise condos and rentals
- Larger mid-rise and mixed-use projects
- Major public and non-profit builds
Takeaway: The zoning and policy framework is moving in the right direction, but the math still depends heavily on a private-sector high-rise pipeline that is currently stalling.
4. How Your Observations Fit the Data
The following observations align with available data:
Housing Starts Are Down
CMHC confirms Toronto starts are below the 10-year average and weakest per-capita among big CMAs.
Net Migration from the City
Recent population data show some out-migration from Toronto to surrounding regions, especially as affordability and remote work shift preferences. This reduces near-term demand for expensive new units and can further chill presales.
Condo Sales Have Collapsed
CMHC explicitly notes collapsed [[condo presales]] and rising unsold inventory in Toronto, which undermines financing for future projects.
Pipeline Killers
All three factors are pipeline killers. Even if zoning is permissive, developers won’t build at scale without:
- Strong presales
- Predictable costs and timelines
- Financing conditions that make proformas work
Right now, those conditions are not present at the scale needed.
5. Is 285,000 by 2031 Achievable?
The Math
- Target: 285,000 homes over 10 years → roughly 28,500 per year (not counting that early years were already below pace)
- Reality so far:
- Toronto has not consistently met its annual share of the provincial target
- Starts are below historical norms and weakest per-capita among major CMAs
- The ownership-oriented pipeline is impaired by collapsed [[condo presales]] and tighter financing
- Net migration and demand shifts are cooling the very segment (high-rise ownership) that used to drive big numbers
The Honest Assessment
Given those conditions, the most honest reading of current data is:
The 285,000-home target is not on track and is unlikely to be met under current market and financing conditions, even with strong zoning reforms. It would require a step-change in rental construction, public/non-profit delivery, and/or major shifts in interest rates and development economics.
6. How You Could Turn This Into a Concrete, Local Analysis
If you want to build a coalition-grade brief or dashboard, you could:
1. Pull Annual Toronto Numbers From:
- [[Ontario’s Housing Supply Progress Tracker]] (Toronto’s annual target vs. actual)
- CMHC Starts and Completions for Toronto CMA (by structure type and tenure)
2. Model Simple Scenarios:
- Status quo: Keep recent 3-year average starts and ARUs → show cumulative shortfall by 2031
- Optimistic rental surge: Assume rental and missing-middle starts grow X% per year → see how close you get
- High-rise recovery: Layer in a hypothetical recovery of [[condo presales]] and starts after, say, 2027
3. Overlay Policy Capacity:
- Use the [[City of Toronto]]’s own estimates (e.g., 54,600 homes from gentle density by 2031) as an upper bound for that channel
The Narrative
That would let you say, with numbers:
“Even if every gentle-density tool hits its optimistic ceiling, we still need ~230,000 additional units from other channels—and the current high-rise pipeline is shrinking, not growing.”